Date: January 25, 2016 2:30PM - 3:45PM EST
Instructor: Pierre-Carl Michaud
Venue: CRDCN Online Webinar
Population aging is a well-known probable factor of increased health care costs in the future. Indeed, future decreases in mortality and the evolution of the incidence and prevalence of several diseases and risk factors will influence future life expectancy and disability, in a complex and varying manner according to individual characteristics. One area of potentially exponential growth in care use and cost is that of long-term care facilities, which is not very well documented in Canada. This is an issue given the high costs of long-term care and the projected growth of the group of potential users.
To assess the size of this issue in a granular fashion that reflects the variety of individual characteristics, we use a custom-built microsimulation model, COMPAS, to project the health status and life expectancy of Quebecers to 2050. The model uses NPHS and CCHS data to produce the estimates, combined with data from several other sources and various statistical processes. The model accounts for seven major disease groups (cancer, heart diseases, pulmonary diseases, dementia, hypertension, diabetes, and stroke) and two risk factors (obesity and tobacco use).
The webinar will give a non-technical but thorough overview of the COMPAS model, explain the hypotheses required to analyze long-term care costs, and expose the limitations in the available cost data - important gaps remain in order to obtain an accurate projection of the future use and cost of long-term care facilities. The presentation will also share results for a "reference scenario" and for alternative scenarios of the future evolution of Quebecers' health and mortality.
Pierre-Carl Michaud is a professor of economics at ESG UQAM. He holds the Industrielle Alliance Research Chair on the Economics of Demographic Change and is vice-president of the Public Policy Group at CIRANO, a research organization based in Montreal. He is also an affiliated adjunct economist at the RAND Corporation. Professor Michaud has authored several publications in the best scientific journals in economics and in public health, one of which received the 2009 Economic Impact of Medical Research Award. His research relates to the economics of aging and population health, and it has been funded by various organizations such as the U.S. National Institutes of Health, the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Société et culture and NETSPAR (Netherlands).
Related publication: http://www.cedia.ca/sites/cedia.ca/files/cahier_15-12_utilisation_et_cout.pdf