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Local labour markets and theft: New evidence from Canada

TitleLocal labour markets and theft: New evidence from Canada
Year of Publication2019
AuthorsSummerfield, F.
JournalOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Volume81
Pages146 - 177
Abstract

This paper provides causal evidence that labour market opportunities affect theft‐related crime rates in Canada. Synthetic panel data from 2007-2011 combine the Labour Force Survey and Uniform Crime Reports microdata. Low‐skill unemployment rates and corresponding crime rates are measured for age‐city‐specific groups of young males. IV estimates exploit the exposure of low‐skill employment to exogenous demand for exports to the US. Causal estimates of the elasticity of theft‐related crimes with respect to low‐skill unemployment range from 0.357 to 0.654. The use of aggregated unemployment rates appears to bias OLS estimates downward. IV estimates are found to mitigate this aggregation bias.

URLhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/obes.12256
DOI10.1111/obes.12256
Document URLhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12256